The Gate
Which teased side clears?
What the simulator is actually measuring, and why the answer is not a bell curve.
The Gate is a free 3-team 10-point teaser calculator for NFL and college football. Instead of assuming football margins follow a smooth bell curve, it simulates the full distribution of final scores and preserves the key numbers — 3 and 7 — where real games actually cluster.
Load any 2025 matchup, set your projected final and the market spread and total, and every teased leg is scored against the win rate your teaser price requires. A leg that survives 73 percent of simulations is not a good leg at +150. The Gate shows you the gap.
A projection tells you where a game lands. That is not the same question as whether the teased side clears. Two games with identical projected margins can price very differently once the ten points move across 3, across 7, or across neither.
Model output, not a guarantee.